Tuesday, July 21, 2009

US Recovery is Anybody's Guess

Most developing countries are rightly criticizing the US for triggering the global recession---or what some are calling the Great Depression Part Two. Regardless, emerging and least developed economies are depending on a rebound in the US economy to continue the pre-crisis flows of aid-assistance and US consumption driven growth they became accustomed to when times were good.

You can imagine, a progress report from the infamous Larry Summers, Director of the National Economic Council would probably gain the up most attention for anyone hoping for so called "green shoots" in the economy that could finally signal the bottom of the recession. The only problem is that many progressive economists aren't buying Summers' optimistic forecast about the future. Read this emotional post by Robert Kuttner in the Huffington Post that practical considers the Obama Administration's predictions semi-delusional.

Corporations are reaping enormous profits this quarter in the US and many consider it yet another sign that the recession is on its way out. But think again, the profit margins this quarter for a few corporations are matched with a trend toward a generally uneven scenario. The Federal Reserve has suggested that the the economic recovery could be coupled with increasingly high unemployment.

Asian countries may be showing signs that their level of dependency on a US recovery may be weakening. While the rest of the world watches for a speedy recovery in the US economy they will likely hedge against the dreaded "W" shaped recovery warned of by skeptical economists. Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, has announced China's intentions to spend money from its foreign exchange reserves in order to purchase companies struggling during the economic crisis---not America's troubled financial assets.

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