Sudan and Democratization in Africa

If you randomly drew a name of an African country from a hat and chose Sudan, you would have a pretty decent sample of the issues facing other large countries in the continent. Sudan is representative of the ethnic/ religious conflicts, natural resource dependency, and immense divide between urban and rural areas that make the process of democratization, as defined by the West, onerous if not inconceivable. This week, Sudan is in the process of voting in multi-party national elections for the first time in more than 20 years. Two of the major opposition parties have dropped out of the race, but outside election observers like former U.S. President Jimmy Carter think the vote can be free and fair.

However, underlying questions remain about the election process and the expected results. Al Jazeera reported on irregularities at several polling stations and the perception among opposition parties that the outcome will be illegitimate in the final analysis. Furthermore, the National Electoral Commission in Sudan has undermined the credibility of the entire process by breaching the standards of Sudan's own election Act. Hafiz Mohammed from Making Sense of Sudan, writes the following list to spell out the faults of the NEC to date,

- By bringing forward the date at which any candidate supposed to withdraw his/her candidateship by one month from the 12 of March to the 12 of April without any justification.

- The accepted back the candidateships of SPLM candidates for the National Assembly from South Kordofan , after they withdraw them within the legal time frame, which was because the NCP and SPLM agreed to that, although it was a clear breach of the law.

- Many of the polling station staff are members of the NCP, and some are from the neighbourhood popular committees which are totally controlled by the NCP.

- Allowing the certificates from the popular committee to be used as source of identification for voters, without using any extra document, has been common. That a clear breach of their own rules, and opens the gate to frauds. That is clear in many polling stations, in the first day of voting as, some NCP members are sitting near to the polling station issuing certificate to allow people to vote without any further checks.

- Most of the people chosen as local observers are members of the NCP, and that also clear violation of the rules as people are not allowed to be monitors if they are member of a political party or support any candidate election campaign.

- The language the NEC is using to respond to any complaint from other political parties is just an imitation of the NCP leaders’ language, so that they are seen as taking sides in the ongoing political dispute between the NCP and other political parties. That led other political parties passing a vote of no confidence on it.

What the elections in Sudan teach us is that procedural democracy is not a magic bullet. Elections alone can't resolve all of the historical and institutional contradictions facing territorially large African nations like Sudan. And while we may hope otherwise, there is no evidence that democracy with African characteristics can ever flourish without striking at the roots of internal conflict. That being said, the elections at hand are vital for short-term peace and reconciliation in Sudan. Though imperfect, the elections are a first step toward the necessary "deracializing civil society, detribalizing the Native Authority, and developing the economy in the context of unequal international relations", which Sudan and other large African countries have so far failed to accomplish.

For the first time in 25 years, there are enough Sudanese power brokers and citizens who are ready to give peace a chance.

All Eyes on Sudan

Sudan is Africa's biggest country and possibly the most strategically important to external economic powers. Not just because of its enormous oil reserves but Sudan is geographically nestled in one of the continents hot zones sharing borders with some of the most volatile countries in the continent. There are warning signs according to experts that Sudan could spiral into a civil war as the Southern region of the country votes for independence next year. Sudan's parliament voted to allow a popular referendum which could open the way for southern succession from the North.

The Sudanese People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) is the leader of the Southern faction and originally started as an armed resistance movement called the Sudanese People's Liberation Army (SPLA). The history of their armed struggle is proudly recorded on the SPLM's website which you can see here. A civil war that ended over a million lives between North and South officially ended in peace talks and powersharing with the central government in 2005 but many of the underlying concerns in the conflict remain. In recent weeks the SPLM and the ruling National Congress (NPC) of the North have attempted to mend fences but the independence vote is likely to stir up old tensions.

If these tensions actually spillover into a violent civil war, the world's preeminent military powers will be drawn in. A Small Arms Survey found that the SPLM group is already receiving thousands of weapons from a U.S. proxy Ukraine, via Kenya in anticipation of a potential stand-off with the Northern government. The NPC is receiving its own cache of weapons from Russia and China. This small arms build-up is a new cold war battle between the West and the East over the future of Sudan. Given the instability that another violent conflict could cause, both sides will be jockeying for position in a contest to control Africa's third largest oil reserves.

Is this potential civil war between North and South real or just another exhagerated call for external intervention? In my opinion the most reliable Western source of information on Sudan comes from Alex de Waal, a Harvard researcher who ran the website Making Sense of Darfur. Recently, the name of the site was changed to Making Sense of Sudan, because de Waal agrees with others that the situation in Sudan has come to a defining crossroads.

"Without doubt, the coming twelve months will be the most momentous in Sudan’s
history. The year is likely to be tumultuous as well. This site will not attempt to keep track of the many developments as they unfold, but rather to continue to provide a forum for informed discussion on key issues for Sudan, including of course Darfur."

Alex de Waal believes that 2010 will be "the year of democracy" in Sudan. But there is no question this year will be the most interesting time to follow politics in Sudan.